Last year, you may have seen a bulletin like this that shared predictions of Kiremt season rainfall, soil moisture, and crop conditions. In this bulletin, also produced by the water and food security PIRE project, we share predictions of expected Kiremt 2021 conditions.

Kiremt season prediction

Chance of Kiremt start

Recent rainy days suggest that the onset of Kiremt has already occurred in early May. The calendar for Ginbot indicates the likelihood of Kiremt onset for each day. The colors correspond to the legend below. For example, the green color in Ginbot means that there is a very high chance of onset early in the month, with slightly lower chance at the end of the month.

The calendars show probability of the season starting, not expected amounts of rainfall. You can understand these probabilities like you think about the chance of a cow giving birth. For example, what is the chance that she will give birth at 8 months? Very low. What about 9 months? There is a good probability. What about 9 months and a few weeks? It is possible but not as likely.

Unlike last year, onset predictions for this year are pretty consistent. Most models predict onset in early May.

Total Kiremt rainfall prediction

The most likely scenario is that Kiremt 2021 rainfall will be near normal. The amount of rain received during the season depends on climate patterns, like the temperature of the ocean, pressure in the atmosphere and winds, which impact the amount of moisture coming to Ethiopia. Our models use current climate conditions to predict how much rainfall we expect for the whole Kiremt season. The colored chart shows that there is a 50% chance of normal conditions, a 30% chance of above normal rainfall (unusually wet conditions), and only a 20% chance of dry conditions. Due to conditions favorable for rain, there is a high chance of normal conditions this season.

Predicted impact to crops

Anticipated crop yields

Our precipitation forecasts indicate that Kiremt 2021 will most likely be a normal rainfall season and soil moisture during the planting season is predicted to be above normal. Based on the precipitation and soil moisture forecasts, we make a forecast of three major crop yields in the coming Kiremt season. To get the predictions, we look back at years in the past with similar precipitation and soil moisture conditions, and we use data from those years to run our model.

The baskets with pictures of the crops represent the expected yields for each crop this year. They also show a comparison with yields from last year. For Gaita, our model predicts above normal maize yields and normal wheat and teff yields.

Soil moisture

The soil moisture for Ginbot is expected to be above normal this year, wetter than last year. Our model uses different climate variables, such as rainfall, temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, and others to predict the amount of moisture in the soil at the beginning of the season. Based on the current conditions, we expect above normal amounts of moisture in the top of the soil, with the soil getting wetter as the rains begin.

Recommendation

This section highlights the predictions for Kiremt 2021 and how this information may help inform crop management on your farm. In summary, the onset likely occurred in early May. Expect above normal yields for maize and normal wheat and teff yields. If you have additional questions, please ask your local agricultural extension expert.

 

Last year, you may have seen a bulletin like this that shared predictions of Kiremt season rainfall, soil moisture, and crop conditions. In this bulletin, also produced by the water and food security PIRE project, we share predictions of expected Kiremt 2021 conditions.

Kiremt season prediction

Chance of Kiremt start

Recent rainy days suggest that the onset of Kiremt has already occurred in early May. The calendar for Ginbot indicates the likelihood of Kiremt onset for each day. The colors correspond to the legend below. For example, the green color in Ginbot means that there is a very high chance of onset early in the month, with slightly lower chance at the end of the month.

The calendars show probability of the season starting, not expected amounts of rainfall. You can understand these probabilities like you think about the chance of a cow giving birth. For example, what is the chance that she will give birth at 8 months? Very low. What about 9 months? There is a good probability. What about 9 months and a few weeks? It is possible but not as likely.

Unlike last year, onset predictions for this year are pretty consistent. Most models predict onset in early May.

Total Kiremt rainfall prediction

The most likely scenario is that Kiremt 2021 rainfall will be near normal. The amount of rain received during the season depends on climate patterns, like the temperature of the ocean, pressure in the atmosphere and winds, which impact the amount of moisture coming to Ethiopia. Our models use current climate conditions to predict how much rainfall we expect for the whole Kiremt season. The colored chart shows that there is a 50% chance of normal conditions, a 30% chance of above normal rainfall (unusually wet conditions), and only a 20% chance of dry conditions. Due to conditions favorable for rain, there is a high chance of normal conditions this season.

Predicted impact to crops

Anticipated crop yields

Our precipitation forecasts indicate that Kiremt 2021 will most likely be a normal rainfall season and soil moisture during the planting season is predicted to be normal. Based on the precipitation and soil moisture forecasts, we make a forecast of three major crop yields in the coming Kiremt season. To get the predictions, we look back at years in the past with similar precipitation and soil moisture conditions, and we use data from those years to run our model.

The baskets with pictures of the crops represent the expected yields for each crop this year. They also show a comparison with yields from last year. For Dangishta, our model predicts above normal maize and teff yields and normal wheat yields.

Soil moisture

The soil moisture for Ginbot is expected to be normal this year, but slightly wetter than last year. Our model uses different climate variables, such as rainfall, temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, and others to predict the amount of moisture in the soil at the beginning of the season. Based on the current conditions, we expect normal amounts of moisture in the top of the soil, with the soil getting wetter as the rains begin.

Recommendation

This section highlights the predictions for Kiremt 2021 and how this information may help inform crop management on your farm. In summary, the onset likely occurred in early May. Expect above normal yields for teff and maize and normal wheat yields. If you have additional questions, please ask your local agricultural extension expert.

 

Last year, you may have seen a bulletin like this that shared predictions of Kiremt season rainfall, soil moisture, and crop conditions. In this bulletin, also produced by the water and food security PIRE project, we share predictions of expected Kiremt 2021 conditions.

Kiremt season prediction

Chance of Kiremt start

Recent rainy days suggest that the onset of Kiremt has already occurred in early May. The calendar for Ginbot indicates the likelihood of Kiremt onset for each day. The colors correspond to the legend below. For example, the green color in Ginbot means that there is a very high chance of onset early in the month, with slightly lower chance at the end of the month.

The calendars show probability of the season starting, not expected amounts of rainfall. You can understand these probabilities like you think about the chance of a cow giving birth. For example, what is the chance that she will give birth at 8 months? Very low. What about 9 months? There is a good probability. What about 9 months and a few weeks? It is possible but not as likely.

Unlike last year, onset predictions for this year are pretty consistent. Most models predict onset in early May.

Total Kiremt rainfall prediction

The most likely scenario is that Kiremt 2021 rainfall will be near normal. The amount of rain received during the season depends on climate patterns, like the temperature of the ocean, pressure in the atmosphere and winds, which impact the amount of moisture coming to Ethiopia. Our models use current climate conditions to predict how much rainfall we expect for the whole Kiremt season. The colored chart shows that there is a 50% chance of normal conditions, a 30% chance of above normal rainfall (unusually wet conditions), and only a 20% chance of dry conditions. Due to conditions favorable for rain, there is a high chance of normal conditions this season.

Predicted impact to crops

Anticipated crop yields

Our precipitation forecasts indicate that Kiremt 2021 will most likely be a normal rainfall season and soil moisture during the planting season is predicted to be normal. Based on the precipitation and soil moisture forecasts, we make a forecast of three major crop yields in the coming Kiremt season. To get the predictions, we look back at years in the past with similar precipitation and soil moisture conditions, and we use data from those years to run our model.

The baskets with pictures of the crops represent the expected yields for each crop this year. They also show a comparison with yields from last year. For Kudmi, our model predicts normal maize and teff yields and below normal wheat yields.

Soil moisture

The soil moisture for Ginbot is expected to be normal this year, slightly wetter than last year. Our model uses different climate variables, such as rainfall, temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, and others to predict the amount of moisture in the soil at the beginning of the season. Based on the current conditions, we expect normal amounts of moisture in the top of the soil, with the soil getting wetter as the rains begin.

Recommendation

This section highlights the predictions for Kiremt 2021 and how this information may help inform crop management on your farm. In summary, the onset likely occurred in early May. Expect normal yields for maize and teff and below normal wheat yields. If you have additional questions, please ask your local agricultural extension expert.

Last year, you may have seen a bulletin like this that shared predictions of Kiremt season rainfall, soil moisture, and crop conditions. In this bulletin, also produced by the water and food security PIRE project, we share predictions of expected Kiremt 2021 conditions. 

Kiremt season prediction

Chance of Kiremt start

Recent rainy days suggest that the onset of Kiremt has already occurred in early May. The calendar for Ginbot indicates the likelihood of Kiremt onset for each day. The colors correspond to the legend below. For example, the green color in Ginbot means that there is a very high chance of onset early in the month, with slightly lower chance at the end of the month.

The calendars show probability of the season starting, not expected amounts of rainfall. You can understand these probabilities like you think about the chance of a cow giving birth. For example, what is the chance that she will give birth at 8 months? Very low. What about 9 months? There is a good probability. What about 9 months and a few weeks? It is possible but not as likely.

Unlike last year, onset predictions for this year are pretty consistent. Most models predict onset in early May.

Total Kiremt rainfall prediction

The most likely scenario is that Kiremt 2021 rainfall will be near normal. The amount of rain received during the season depends on climate patterns, like the temperature of the ocean, pressure in the atmosphere and winds, which impact the amount of moisture coming to Ethiopia. Our models use current climate conditions to predict how much rainfall we expect for the whole Kiremt season. The colored chart shows that there is a 50% chance of normal conditions, a 30% chance of above normal rainfall (unusually wet conditions), and only a 20% chance of dry conditions. Due to conditions favorable for rain, there is a high chance of normal conditions this season.

Predicted impact to crops

Anticipated crop yields

Our precipitation forecasts indicate that Kiremt 2021 will most likely be a normal rainfall season and soil moisture during the planting season is predicted to be above normal. Based on the precipitation and soil moisture forecasts, we make a forecast of three major crop yields in the coming Kiremt season. To get the predictions, we look back at years in the past with similar precipitation and soil moisture conditions, and we use data from those years to run our model.

The baskets with pictures of the crops represent the expected yields for each crop this year. They also show a comparison with yields from last year. For Reem, our model predicts normal maize, teff and wheat yields.

Soil moisture

The soil moisture for Ginbot is expected to be above normal this year, wetter than last year. Our model uses different climate variables, such as rainfall, temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, and others to predict the amount of moisture in the soil at the beginning of the season. Based on the current conditions, we expect above normal amounts of moisture in the top of the soil, with the soil getting wetter as the rains begin.

Recommendation

This section highlights the predictions for Kiremt 2021 and how this information may help inform crop management on your farm. In summary, the onset likely occurred in early May. Expect normal yields for maize, teff and wheat yields. If you have additional questions, please ask your local agricultural extension expert.

 

 

The first brownbag for the fall 2019 semester was held in March 7, 2019. There were a lot of updates from all corners, and the meeting took place for about an hour and a half. For the context of the project, it was an extremely busy schedule for the engineering modelling team, as they had to finish all model simulations to get the seasonal forecast ready in time.

The meeting first heard from the undergraduate participants, on their invaluable experiences from the Ethiopia summer field visit. For all the undergraduate students, it was their first visit to a new continent! It was decided that they will submit a reflection report based on their visit. Also, interested undergraduate students would be provided with the opportunity to continue research within the NSF PIRE project.

There were discussions on the individual research updates. Genevieve Rigler, an undergraduate student from UConn recently attended a conference in the University of Oklahoma and presented a poster on the PIRE Citizen Science project. Xinyu Lin, another undergraduate student who is committed to doing her thesis with the PIRE project will also continue her research for the next two semesters.

The graduate student team discussed in very detail about the development of the dry season Forecast Bulletin. The social science team from Ethiopia remotely connected for the meeting and provided valuable updates on the feedback they received from the initial forecast dissemination. A few updates to the existing draft bulletin was discussed and accepted. The engineering team talked about their model findings in very brief. Overall it was decided that in the next Brownbag they will continue discussions on inter-disciplinary research, agent based modelling techniques, and on ideas of how to improve the forecast bulletins from now on.

The second brownbag for the spring semester was held in March 7, 2019. Like the previous summer brownbag, this one also experienced less participation. Almost all the social science graduate students were away in Ethiopia for their data collection. 

In this Brownbag, the participation of the undergraduate students was highlighted. As the NSF PIRE project gave the opportunity to a total number of 9 undergraduate students to perform pilot research projects within the scope of the PIRE Water and Food Security Project, they took the time to discuss about their specific plans. The engineering graduate students who were present in the Brownbag discussed with the undergraduates on the feasibility aspects of their research plans. 

The graduate students also discussed about their specific plans for the field visits, with emphasis on the summer school activities and model results. In short, the specific actions performed in the Brownbag was,

• Discussing with UConn undergraduate students regarding their research plans.
• Sharing research ideas and providing a brief understanding on the project goals.
• Discussing engineering model results, social survey feedbacks from field, etc.
• Detailed plan on Summer 2019 field visits and expectations.
• Demonstration of the summer school activities to be held in the Summer of 2019

The first brownbag for the spring semester was held in February 21, 2019. The meeting experienced less participation than usual, since most of the social science researchers were already away in Ethiopia for their data collection. One of the changes in the Brownbag was the inclusion of a broad number of undergraduate students. For the spring 2019 semester, the participation of the undergraduate students was emphasized. The NSF PIRE project gave the opportunity to a total number of 9 undergraduate students to perform pilot research projects within the scope of the PIRE Water and Food Security Project. The Spring semester Brownbag was structured in a way that it helps the undergraduates with their research plan, field visit preparation, etc. The Brownbag is an excellent platform where students from all disciplines and all tiers get the opportunity to interact, talk with themselves and hence allow a greater exchange of knowledge and information.
The specific actions performed in the Brownbag was,

• Introducing the UConn undergraduate students and hearing out from them on their
  research proposals.
• Sharing research ideas and providing a brief understanding on the project goals.
• Brief plan on summer 2019 field visits and expectations.