Understanding the Kiremt 2021 Season Forecast for Reem
Last year, you may have seen a bulletin like this that shared predictions of Kiremt season rainfall, soil moisture, and crop conditions. In this bulletin, also produced by the water and food security PIRE project, we share predictions of expected Kiremt 2021 conditions.
Kiremt season prediction
Chance of Kiremt start
Recent rainy days suggest that the onset of Kiremt has already occurred in early May. The calendar for Ginbot indicates the likelihood of Kiremt onset for each day. The colors correspond to the legend below. For example, the green color in Ginbot means that there is a very high chance of onset early in the month, with slightly lower chance at the end of the month.
The calendars show probability of the season starting, not expected amounts of rainfall. You can understand these probabilities like you think about the chance of a cow giving birth. For example, what is the chance that she will give birth at 8 months? Very low. What about 9 months? There is a good probability. What about 9 months and a few weeks? It is possible but not as likely.
Unlike last year, onset predictions for this year are pretty consistent. Most models predict onset in early May.
Total Kiremt rainfall prediction
The most likely scenario is that Kiremt 2021 rainfall will be near normal. The amount of rain received during the season depends on climate patterns, like the temperature of the ocean, pressure in the atmosphere and winds, which impact the amount of moisture coming to Ethiopia. Our models use current climate conditions to predict how much rainfall we expect for the whole Kiremt season. The colored chart shows that there is a 50% chance of normal conditions, a 30% chance of above normal rainfall (unusually wet conditions), and only a 20% chance of dry conditions. Due to conditions favorable for rain, there is a high chance of normal conditions this season.
Predicted impact to crops
Anticipated crop yields
Our precipitation forecasts indicate that Kiremt 2021 will most likely be a normal rainfall season and soil moisture during the planting season is predicted to be above normal. Based on the precipitation and soil moisture forecasts, we make a forecast of three major crop yields in the coming Kiremt season. To get the predictions, we look back at years in the past with similar precipitation and soil moisture conditions, and we use data from those years to run our model.
The baskets with pictures of the crops represent the expected yields for each crop this year. They also show a comparison with yields from last year. For Reem, our model predicts normal maize, teff and wheat yields.
Soil moisture
The soil moisture for Ginbot is expected to be above normal this year, wetter than last year. Our model uses different climate variables, such as rainfall, temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, and others to predict the amount of moisture in the soil at the beginning of the season. Based on the current conditions, we expect above normal amounts of moisture in the top of the soil, with the soil getting wetter as the rains begin.
Recommendation
This section highlights the predictions for Kiremt 2021 and how this information may help inform crop management on your farm. In summary, the onset likely occurred in early May. Expect normal yields for maize, teff and wheat yields. If you have additional questions, please ask your local agricultural extension expert.
Categories: Uncategorized
Published: July 7, 2021