Understanding the Kiremt 2020 Season Forecast for Gaita
Last year, you may have seen a bulletin like this that shared predictions of Kiremt season rainfall, soil moisture, and crop conditions. In this bulletin, also produced by the water and food security PIRE project, we share predictions of expected Kiremt 2020 conditions.
Kiremt season prediction
Chance of Kiremt start
The onset of Kiremt is not expected to be late, likely occurring in mid to late May. The calendars for Miyazya and Ginbot indicate the likelihood of Kiremt onset for each day. The colors correspond to the legend below. For example, the white color in Miyazya means that there is a very low chance of onset most of the month, with slightly higher chance at the end of the month. The orange color in Ginbot means that there is a moderate chance of onset between the 7th– 22nd.
The calendars show probability of the season starting, not expected amounts of rainfall. You can understand these probabilities like you think about the chance of a cow giving birth. For example, what is the chance that she will give birth at 8 months? Very low. What about 9 months? There is a good probability. What about 9 months and a few weeks? It is possible but not as likely.
Unlike last year, onset predictions for this year are less certain. Most models predict early (end of April to mid-May) onset due to recent strong eastward-blowing winds in the Sahara. However, some models show that very high pressure over the Sahara may delay onset to late May. While it is less clear this year when onset will occur, it is not expected to be late, and likely to occur in May.
Total Kiremt rainfall prediction
The most likely scenario is that Kiremt 2020 rainfall will be above normal or wet. The amount of rain received during the season depends on climate patterns, like the temperature of the ocean, pressure in the atmosphere and winds, which impact the amount of moisture coming to Ethiopia. Our models use current climate conditions to predict how much rainfall we expect for the whole Kiremt season. The colored chart shows that there is a 55% chance of wetter than normal conditions, a 30% chance of normal rainfall, and only a 15% chance of dry conditions. Due to conditions favorable for rain, there is a high chance of wetter than normal conditions this season.
Predicted impact to crops
Anticipated crop yields
Our precipitation forecasts indicate that Kiremt 2020 will most likely be a wet season and soil moisture during the planting season is predicted to be normal. Based on the precipitation and soil moisture forecasts, we make a forecast of four major crop yields in the coming Kiremt season. To get the predictions, we look back at years in the past with similar precipitation and soil moisture conditions, and we use data from those years to run our model.
The baskets with pictures of the crops represent the expected yields for each crop this year. They also show a comparison with yields from last year. For Gaita, our model predicts above normal finger millet yields, normal teff and maize yields, and below normal yields of wheat. Look out for high rainfall at the end of the season that may impact crops, like last year. We will provide an update later in the season on expected conditions during harvest.
Soil moisture
The soil moisture for Ginbot is expected to be normal this year, similar to last year. Our model uses different climate variables, such as rainfall, temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, and others to predict the amount of moisture in the soil at the beginning of the season. Based on the current conditions, we expect normal amounts of moisture in the top of the soil, with the soil getting wetter as the rains begin.
Recommendation
This section highlights the predictions for Kiremt 2020 and how this information may help inform crop management on your farm. In summary, the onset is not expected to be late, likely very soon in mid to late May. Expect above normal yields for finger millet, normal yields of teff and maize, and below normal wheat yields. If you have additional questions, please ask your local agricultural extension expert.
Categories: Wet Season Forecast 2020
Published: June 1, 2020