Evaluation of Rainy Season Precipitation Analogs for the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
Evaluation of Rainy Season Precipitation Analogs for the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
Background
The Blue Nile Basin receives most of its precipitation in JJAS, playing a large role in basin wide hydrology, water resources, and agriculture. Identification of analog years based on current year precipitation or temperature from the observed record may help facilitate sectoral modeling by providing a coherent set of meteorological variables.
Objective
Evaluate various precipitation products and identify analog years for each year in the observational record (initially conditioned on pre-season precipitation.)
Initial Results Precipitation estimates from products vary substantially. Top 3 analogs identified at various local scales (examples in Fig 2 and 3.)
Dissemination: Paper in preparation
Figure 3. Difference in precipitation between Target year (x-axis) and selected analogs
Figure 1. Observed June-September precipitation from various products
Figure 2. Selected analogs (June-September) for each Target year. Largest circles indicate closest precipitation analog.
Research Team
Sarah Alexander, Graduate Research Assistant, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin – Madison.
Paul Block, AssistantProfessor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Shu Wu, Assistant Researcher, Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin – Madison.
