Evaluation of Rainy Season Precipitation Analogs for the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Background

The Blue Nile Basin receives most of its precipitation in JJAS, playing a large role in basin wide hydrology, water resources, and agriculture. Identification of analog years based on current year precipitation or temperature from the observed record may help facilitate sectoral modeling by providing a coherent set of meteorological variables.

Objective

Evaluate various precipitation products and identify analog years for each year in the observational record (initially conditioned on pre-season precipitation.)

Initial Results

Precipitation estimates from products vary substantially. Top 3 analogs identified at various local scales (examples in Fig 2 and 3.)

Dissemination: Paper in preparation

 

Figure of Difference in precipitation between Target year (x-axis) and selected analogs

Figure 3. Difference in precipitation between Target year (x-axis) and selected analogs

Figure of Observed June-September precipitation from various products

Figure 1. Observed June-September precipitation from various products

Figure 2. Selected analogs (June-September) for each Target year. Largest circles indicate closest precipitation analog.

Research Team

Sarah Alexander, Graduate Research Assistant, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin - Madison.

Paul Block, Assistant Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Shu Wu, Assistant Researcher, Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin - Madison.