Dry Season 2020-21 | Bega 2013 (Ethiopian Calendar)
Koga Reservoir and Quashni River Levels
A simple reservoir model was created based on historical water level and release information. Since the main water input to the reservoir is Kiremt rainfall, a relationship to relate summertime rainfall and October reservoir volume was developed. Predictions of June-September rainfall and evapotranspiration were input to this equation to predict the October 2013 reservoir volume. Predictions show a good chance that the reservoir will be full. Given nearly full reservoir volume, it is expected that river levels are also high.
| Kudmi | |
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| The indicated results on reservoir releases, water levels, and soil moisture are based on mathematical model simulations for certain projected atmospheric variables and are representative of a single scenario outcome only. The soil moisture prior to the start of the Bega season is predicted to be normal, which means that there is adequate moisture for crop growth. The results indicate that if the irrigation releases are made to the amount specified, the soil moisture will remain normal throughout the season. However, it may be drier compared to last year. The precipitation pattern suggests that there may not be any unexpected precipitation in November and December, hence it is assumed that the release patterns would be analogous to the release pattern in 2016. The Kiremt soil moisture is expected to last until the end of October, and soil is expected to be dry for the first three weeks of November. | |
| Gaita | |
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The indicated results on soil conditions are based on mathematical model simulations for certain projected atmospheric variables and are representative of single scenario outcome only. The soil moisture prior to the start of the Bega season is predicted to be normal, which means that there is adequate moisture for crop growth. The results indicate that if the irrigation releases are maintained to the amount specified the soil moisture will remain normal throughout the season. However, it may be drier compared to last year.The Kiremt soil moisture is expected to last by the end of October, and soil is expected to go dry from November, until the start of irrigation. |
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Anticipated crop yields
We hindcasted and forecasted the categories of irrigated wheat, pepper and cabbage yields in Koga and Quashni in the dry season of 2013, based on the past and predicted climate and soil moisture data. The planting dates were set as Nov. 15 based on one of Mamaru’s reports and the survey data from our citizen science group. The crop yield was divided into three categories, below normal, normal and above normal, based on the simulated 10-year yields since 2011 when irrigation started. The crop forecast takes into account climate effects (temperature and sunshine) and soil moisture but does not account for management practices (planting time, fertilizer application, or cultivar type).