PIRE research questions
How do relationships between scientists, farmers, water managers, and authorities influence the production, dissemination, and outcome of new scientific knowledge?
This project establishes an international research and education partnership to promote a political-institutional model of science that links sociological and engineering methods in a people-centered approach to the human-climate-water-agriculture-energy nexus in the Blue Nile basin (BNB), Ethiopia. Our objectives are to: (i) improve seasonal hydrologic and crop yield forecasts at scales relevant to farmers and water managers; (ii) identify and reduce barriers to effective forecast dissemination and uptake; (iii) train a new generation of global experts who recognize the political-institutional and climate-ecological dimensions of complex food-energy-water problems. Strong collaborations in Ethiopia allow us to implement new forecast products and observe actions surrounding this new knowledge in a novel experiment that distinguishes between hydro-ecological and political-institutional dynamics. We identify variation in hydro-ecological vulnerability (rain-fed versus irrigated agriculture) and in political-institutional dimensions: highly institutionalized (hydropower), moderately institutionalized (irrigated), and minimally institutionalized (rain-fed); “open” communities that encourage voice and trust versus “closed” communities that do not. We test competing models of science: a “pure science” model (communities mostly vulnerable to climate variability benefit most from forecasts), institutional model (more institutionalized communities implement forecasts at higher rates), and political-institutional model (open communities will exhibit greater benefits than closed communities). The PIRE team includes partners from six countries.
The project improves understanding of the complexities of decision-making under uncertainty not readily visible through hydro-climatic or social scientific research alone. By incorporating hydro-climatic forecasts from data-enhanced models and social scientific data, the research will improve predictability of sub-basin hydro-agricultural and water management processes in the BNB. A three-stage longitudinal design captures the changing links between new scientific information, political-institutional dynamics, and water, agricultural and energy activities. The experimental comparative design harnesses variation in both human and natural systems to investigate how each aspect of the coupled system influences human security in vulnerable hydro-climatic environments for a novel test of the traditional understanding of “pure” science against a political-institutional model that acknowledges the role of social factors. The research will provide a better understanding of how people respond to scientific uncertainty with implications beyond the BNB.
The project will integrate research, education and outreach, bringing people and resources together across disciplinary, cultural and geographical boundaries to promote interventions in the BNB that will: (1) benefit society by developing a practical roadmap for low income communities vulnerable to climate variability; (2) strengthen research and educational infrastructure to position our universities as global leaders in the multidisciplinary field of water and human security through international research and education activities; (3) educate and train a new generation of global experts on water and human security beginning with the 14 graduate (and several undergraduate) US students supported. Students will receive considerable international field training in social scientific research and hydrology; (4) foster recruitment of these students from underrepresented groups; (5) engage participants in global public outreach to disseminate results to the wider international community. We will actively promote outcomes of this work through participation in national and international conferences as well as generation of e-learning (web-based) material. The proposed research aligns well with NSF’s emerging focus on Food, Energy, and Water systems, and lays the groundwork for future projects to understand trade-offs, feedbacks and synergies between sectors and resources, manifesting in physical and social environments.